Dr Judith M Fonville

My research focuses on the evolution of pathogens to cross species-barriers and infect new hosts. In particular, using mathematical modelling of experimental data and next generation sequencing data, I am studying the potential of avian A/H5N1 influenza viruses to adapt to a human host. These highly pathogenic avian A/H5N1 (“bird flu”) viruses are a major public health concern, causing severe disease in infected humans, with over 50% mortality. When research groups reported that these viruses can become aerosol transmissible between mammals [Science 336: 1534–1541 (2012); Nature 486: 420–428 (2012)], we developed a mathematical model of within-host virus evolution that was used to provide an urgently needed detailed appraisal of the critical parameters involved in the host-adaptation process of A/H5N1 viruses [Science 336: 1541–1547 (2012)].

As a fellow, I am using computational data analysis and modelling techniques to improve the developed model of within-host virus evolution and help refine the estimate of the pandemic risk posed by influenza A/H5N1 viruses. In particular, I am using deep sequencing data to study the viral population diversity and dynamics, to investigate evolutionary mechanisms and biological parameters that our publication identified as important determinants in quantifying H5N1 pandemic risk. In addition to addressing fundamental and general scientific questions, this work ties in with the status of the Centre for Pathogen Evolution as a WHO Collaborating Centre for Modelling, Evolution and Control of Emerging Infectious Diseases, as it may inform policy decisions on the strategies for surveillance, mitigation, and global eradication of the virus.